The stock exchange has implemented a "tiered" adjustment of margin standards and the limits of daily price fluctuations. Market participants have called for hedging with light positions.
Four futures exchanges have announced their risk control measures during the May Day holiday.
According to the announcement of Dalian Commodity Exchange, starting from the settlement on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, the limit-up and limit-down trading fluctuation for iron ore (805, -22.00, -2.66%) futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 12%; for coke (2232, -47.00, -2.06%) futures contracts, the limit-up and limit-down trading fluctuation will be adjusted to 9%, and the trading margin level will remain unchanged; for coking coal (1556, -15.00, -0.95%) futures contracts, the limit-up and limit-down trading fluctuation will be adjusted to 9%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 13%; for yellow soybean (4521, -21.00, -0.46%) No. 1, yellow soybean No. 2, soybean meal (3111, 18.00, 0.58%), soybean oil (7630, 36.00, 0.47%), linear low-density polyethylene, polypropylene and polyvinyl chloride futures contracts, the limit-up and limit-down trading fluctuation will be adjusted to 8%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 9%; for palm oil (7878, 112.00, 1.44%) futures contracts, the limit-up and limit-down trading fluctuation will be adjusted to 9%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 10%; for corn (2388, 9.00, 0.38%) and eggs (3976, -26.00, -0.65%) futures contracts, the limit-up and limit-down trading fluctuation will be adjusted to 7%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 8%; for corn starch (2828, -1.00, -0.04%) futures contracts, the limit-up and limit-down trading fluctuation will be adjusted to 6%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 7%; for live hog futures contracts, the limit-up and limit-down trading fluctuation will be adjusted to 7%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 9%; for ethylene glycol (4641, -57.00, -1.21%), styrene and liquefied petroleum gas futures contracts, the limit-up and limit-down trading fluctuation will be adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 11%; for other futures contracts, the limit-up and limit-down trading fluctuation and trading margin level will remain unchanged.
After resuming trading on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, starting from the settlement of the first trading day when the largest position contract of each commodity type did not show any limit-up or limit-down trading and no continuous quotations were available, the following adjustments shall be made:
The fluctuation limits and margin requirements for futures contracts of iron ore, coke, coking coal, yellow soybean No. 1, yellow soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, corn, corn starch, eggs, live pigs, linear low-density polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride, ethylene glycol, styrene and liquefied petroleum gas will be restored to the standards before the holiday. The fluctuation limits and margin requirements for other futures contracts will remain unchanged.
According to the announcement of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as of the closing settlement on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, the fluctuation limits for the futures contracts of rebar (3487, -54.00, -1.52%), hot-rolled coil, and stainless steel will be adjusted to 8%; the margin ratio for hedging transactions will be adjusted to 9%, and the margin ratio for speculative transactions will be adjusted to 10%. For the futures contracts of aluminum, zinc, lead, alumina, wire rod (3623, -55.00, -1.50%), and pulp (5686, -32.00, -0.56%), the fluctuation limits will be adjusted to 9%, the margin ratio for hedging transactions will be adjusted to 10%, and the margin ratio for speculative transactions will be adjusted to 11%. For the futures contract of copper, the fluctuation limits will be adjusted to 10%, the margin ratio for hedging transactions will be adjusted to 11%, and the margin ratio for speculative transactions will be adjusted to 12%. For the futures contract of natural rubber (14750, -20.00, -0.14%), the fluctuation limits will be adjusted to 11%, the margin ratio for hedging transactions will be adjusted to 12%, and the margin ratio for speculative transactions will be adjusted to 13%. For the futures contracts of fuel oil (3495, -7.00, -0.20%), petroleum asphalt (3609, -13.00, -0.36%), butadiene rubber, nickel, and tin, the fluctuation limits will be adjusted to 12%, the margin ratio for hedging transactions will be adjusted to 13%, and the margin ratio for speculative transactions will be adjusted to 14%. For the futures contract of silver (8131, -9.00, -0.11%), the fluctuation limits will be adjusted to 13%, the margin ratio for hedging transactions will be adjusted to 14%, and the margin ratio for speculative transactions will be adjusted to 15%. For the futures contract of gold (582, 8.80, 1.54%), the fluctuation limits will be adjusted to 14%, the margin ratio for hedging transactions will be adjusted to 15%, and the margin ratio for speculative transactions will be adjusted to 16%. If the circumstances stipulated in Article 12 of the "Risk Control Measures of the Shanghai Futures Exchange" occur, the above margin ratios and fluctuation limits will be adjusted accordingly.
After the trading on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, the limits of increase and decrease and the margin ratios for trading will be adjusted as follows: The limit of increase and decrease for gold futures contracts will be adjusted to 12%; the margin ratio for hedging transactions will be adjusted to 13%; and the margin ratio for speculative transactions will be adjusted to 14%. The limits of increase and decrease and the margin ratios for other futures contracts will be restored to their original levels. Other matters regarding the limits of increase and decrease and the margin ratios shall be implemented in accordance with the "Risk Control Management Measures of the Shanghai Futures Exchange". All relevant units should do a good job in risk prevention and ensure the stability of the market and smooth delivery.
According to the announcement of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, as of the settlement on April 29, 2025, the margin standards for trading of rapeseed meal (2479, 38.00, 1.56%), rapeseed oil (8340, 2.00, 0.02%), apples (6987, 33.00, 0.47%), glass (1439, -10.00, -0.69%), and soda ash futures contracts will be 12%, with the fluctuation limit of 10%. Among them, the margin standard for the 2505 contract of apple futures is 13%. The margin standards for sugar (6128, -19.00, -0.31%), cotton (14690, -40.00, -0.27%), peanuts, PTA (5834, -4.00, -0.07%), methanol (2529, -33.00, -1.29%), ferro-silicon (6672, -28.00, -0.42%), manganese-silicon (7126, -152.00, -2.09%), urea, PX0 > p-xylene, and caustic soda futures contracts will be 10%, with the fluctuation limit of 9%. The margin standards for short fibers and bottle chips futures contracts will be 9%, with the fluctuation limit of 8%. The margin standard for cotton yarn (20235, -80.00, -0.39%) futures contract will be 7%, with the fluctuation limit of 6%.
After resuming trading on May 6, 2025, starting from the settlement of the first trading day when the largest position contract of the relevant variety did not witness the one-sided market due to the limit-up or limit-down, the trading margin standard for soda ash futures contracts was set at 9%, with the limit-up or limit-down fluctuation range being 8%; the trading margin standard for silicon iron futures contracts was set at 8%, with the limit-up or limit-down fluctuation range being 7%; and the trading margin standards and limit-up or limit-down fluctuation ranges for other futures contracts were restored to the levels before the adjustment.
According to the announcement of the Guangdong Futures Exchange, starting from the settlement on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, the fluctuation limit for the increase and decrease of the industrial silicon futures contract will be adjusted to 8%; the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 10%; and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 9%. For the polysilicon futures contract, the fluctuation limit for increase and decrease will be adjusted to 9%; the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 11%; and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 10%. For the lithium carbonate futures contract, the fluctuation limit for increase and decrease will be adjusted to 10%; the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%; and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 11%.
After resumption of trading on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, starting from the settlement of the first trading day when the largest position contract of each futures variety did not show any one-sided continuous quotations within the limit-up and limit-down range, the fluctuation limits of the futures contracts of the above-mentioned varieties, the standards of speculative trading margin and the standards of hedging trading margin shall be restored to the levels before the adjustment.
From the perspective of trading schedule, there will be no overnight trading on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. The market will be closed from Thursday, May 1, 2025 to Monday, May 5, 2025. From Tuesday, May 6, 2025 at 08:55 to 09:00, all futures and options contracts will conduct collective bidding. Overnight trading will resume on the same night.
Market analysts: Investors need to manage their positions and margin deposits properly.
The reporter learned that the duration of the Labor Day holiday this year has been extended from the previous three days to five days. In response to this change, the Futures Exchange has been particularly cautious in its risk control measures to cope with the increased market uncertainty over a longer period. It has generally raised the trading margin level and the fluctuation limit range.
"Given the complex and volatile current domestic and international situations, and the numerous uncertain factors affecting market operation, the Futures Exchange has made more thorough estimations of risks and adopted stricter risk control measures." Ji Kang, a visiting professor at Xi'an Jiaotong University, said. Compared with the risk control measures adopted during the Labor Day holiday or other important holidays in the past few years, adjusting the trading margin level and the fluctuation limit range remains the main risk control method used by the Futures Exchange. These measures have good effectiveness and stability, and market participants need to pay more attention to preventing risks.
Compared with the same period in previous years, the biggest change in the risk control measures of the exchange during the holiday season is reflected in the expansion of the adjustment range of the margin ratio for certain high-risk products. Gu Jiannan, the assistant general manager of the Research Institute of Haitong Futures, said that taking gold futures as an example, the speculative margin standard was raised to 16% in 2025 (13% in 2023), and the fluctuation limit range was adjusted from 11% to 14%. The adjustment range is relatively large. In addition, due to the significant fluctuations in international oil prices, the risk control measures for energy and chemical products have also been significantly upgraded. For example, the margin standard for fuel oil futures was raised from 9% to 14% (12% in 2023), and the fluctuation limit range was adjusted from 8% to 12%.
Jing Quan believes that during this year's Labor Day holiday period, there might be abnormal fluctuations in the overseas markets, which could subsequently affect the domestic futures market. "On one hand, the uncertainty of international geopolitical situations may trigger a sense of risk aversion in the market, leading to intensified market fluctuations; on the other hand, the macroeconomic data released both domestically and internationally during the holiday period may also have a significant impact on the market," he said.
The reporter learned that since 2025, the global political and economic landscape has been acceleratingly reshaped. The tariff policies of the Trump administration have continuously disrupted the market, pushing the US dollar index to its lowest point in nearly three years, and raising the ratio of gold to silver to a new high since the pandemic. The volatility of commodities has significantly increased.
Looking forward to the Labor Day holiday, Gu Jiannan reminds investors to pay close attention to two major risk factors. The first is the US tariff policy. Although Trump has recently signaled for negotiations, under the mechanism of graduated tariffs, there is still a risk of dynamic adjustment of tax rates. Investors need to be vigilant about the possibility that the US may impose tariffs on strategic industries such as semiconductors and new energy vehicles. The second is the key verification window for the policy path of the Federal Reserve. The ISM manufacturing PMI released on May 1st as an economic leading indicator has already dropped below 50 since March; more crucially, the non-farm payrolls data on May 2nd. If the data is lower than expectations, it may strengthen the market expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June.
In his view, it is necessary to comprehensively assess one's own risk tolerance, adjust strategies in accordance with the characteristics of the products, and prioritize safeguarding the safety of funds to avoid unexpected losses due to liquidity or policy changes.
In terms of specific operation, investors need to manage their positions and margin properly, assess the risks of their holdings and reserve sufficient funds. For high-margin assets such as gold and crude oil (607, -8.60, -1.40%), they should reduce their positions first to avoid being forced to liquidate due to insufficient funds, and replenish their account funds in advance according to the adjusted margin ratio by the exchange. To avoid risks from fluctuations in overseas markets, investors can hold a light position or go short during the holiday, especially for assets that are highly correlated with overseas markets, such as crude oil, gold, silver, and copper, they can reduce their exposure. Gu Jiannan said.
Besides, Jing Quan also suggested that investors should closely monitor the domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, policy changes and the market dynamics of related products, and promptly adjust their investment strategies. "Specifically, they need to pay close attention to the trends of relevant products on the foreign exchanges, keep an eye on domestic and international macroeconomic data, promptly analyze the impact of the data on the market, and also keep abreast of the international market dynamics, especially the changes in international geopolitical situations. All these may trigger market risk-aversion sentiments," he said.