Mar. 31, 2025: Silicon Manganese Latest News
Mar 31, 2025
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Mar. 31, 2025: Silicon Manganese Latest News(7126, -152.00, -2.09%): port manganese ore inventory is absolutely low, below the strong cost support
1,Supply: due to the continuous loss, the main producing areas of silicomanganese have cut down production one after another. 804,000 tons of silicomanganese were produced in February, the rate of decrease was obviously down. Producers in the main production areas started to reduce production one after another, and the weekly value of silicomanganese production continued to decline, only higher than the level of the same period last year in the past five years, and the current supply reduction has not formed a strong upward drive on the silicomanganese futures price, and it is expected that the subsequent production enterprises will still continue to implement the plan of reducing and stopping the production.
2,Demand: Sample steel mills' demand for silicon manganese is stronger than the weekly value, but the absolute value is still low, and the terminal demand is still to be improved. According to the data of Steel Union, the weekly value of silicon manganese demand of sample steel mills has rebounded since late January, and now it has been higher than the level of the same period of last year, but it is still on the low side compared with the same period of the previous years. Under the cost inversion, the market transaction difficulty increases.
3, inventory: sample enterprise inventory began to accumulate, warehouse receipts plus the number of effective forecast is high. As of the week of March 28, 63 sample enterprises inventory totaled 148,600 tons, an increase of 15,500 tons. The number of warehouse receipts is still high. As of March 28, the number of silico-manganese warehouse receipts is 109,069, and the effective forecast is 8,417, totaling 117,486, discounting 587,000 tons of inventory.
4,Cost and profit: although manganese ore price is high and gradually fall back, but the seasonal ring is rising, silicomanganese spot production cost is increasing, profit is decreasing, and fall into a comprehensive loss. As of March 21st data, the stock of manganese ore in port is about 3.786 million tons, the year-on-year decrease is nearly 1.3 million tons, which is at the absolute low level in history, but the price of manganese ore in port fails to reflect the stock level effectively, the summary price of Gabon block in Tianjin port is 44CNY/tons, the Australian block is about 45CNY/tons, and the South African semi carbonic acid is about 36CNY/tons. Under the circumstance of cost increase, the current main producing area has been in full loss, and the immediate profit of Inner Mongolia is about -120CNY/tonne.
5,Summary: At present, silicomanganese still needs to reduce production to ease the contradiction between supply and demand, in addition to pay attention to the port manganese ore inventory data, pulling the market sentiment. At present, the recent market focuses on two aspects, on the one hand, manganese ore, port manganese ore stocks are absolutely low and the subsequent arrival is expected to decline further, manufacturers are willing to support the price is stronger, the cost support is still there. However, due to the current silicomanganese production has been in the red, silicomanganese producers are willing to purchase price pressure, manganese ore price up and down dilemma. On the other hand, at the supply and demand level, the downstream demand support is not strong under the current weak silico-manganese price and end demand to be boosted. On the supply side, in the case of continuous loss of silicomanganese producers, there are enterprises in the main producing areas start to reduce and stop production one after another, but at present, the reduction and stopping of production has not formed a strong upward support for the price of silicomanganese, and it is expected that there will be enterprises reduce and stop production one after another in the following period. From a comprehensive point of view, we believe that the current supply and demand of silicomanganese still need to reduce production to ease, in the silicomanganese futures prices have been located in the historical low, and the cost support is stronger, the supply is gradually reduced, silicomanganese futures below the space is limited, but whether the second quarter can be an effective rebound, we need to pay attention to the manganese ore end and the structure of supply and demand can be a sustained improvement, it is expected that short-term low level shock, the center of gravity of the price in the medium and long term or a certain amount of upward movement.
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